What If? NGS Playoffs

Have you ever wondered what the playoffs would be like if they were pre-determined by regular season results?

No? Why not?

In NGS this season, every team played every other team in their respective division, so every playoff match was a rematch. The Intercontinental Grand Finals are the first fresh matches we've seen in weeks! What would happen if we skipped the reruns and assumed no one would take revenge for an earlier defeat? Let's find out, starting with the spiciest division:

D East

The only division with more than one upset, D East saw 6th seed 2 Calculated 2 Throw win in round one and 4th seed Full Meta Jacket get past round two. The only sub-3 seed in all of NGS to reach their Coastal Final, FMJ couldn't make it past 2nd seed Frank's Furters, ensuring that every division champion this season will be a top 3 team. After seeing two 5th seeds win it all last season, the spice factor at present is disappointing, but you have to appreciate how well the round robin format sorted teams by relative strength.

If that format were the end all be all... If the regular season were, in fact, a single elimination tournament to seed you into a simulated postseason where winners remained winners and losers could only lose, whose fate would be altered? More importantly, could you have won the bracket challenge this way?

Immediately, we have a crushing upset, as #8 Backbone take out Save the Murloc 2-0. That's as far as they get, however, having lost to every other playoff team during the season. FMJ sweep them after needing a 3rd game to beat Luciodology, a harder road to the Finals than they had in reality. Frank's Furters have an easier time, reaching round 3 in five games instead of six. The big difference is their second round opponent: the Nexus Cats dominate 2C2T before falling to FF in three. Da East champs? FMJ with the comeback, 2-1.

D West

Spice was a rare sight here. Not only did #6 Sack of Bricks pull off the only upset, theirs was the only match to reach game 3. The other six matches, including Bricks' second rounder, were dominated by the higher seed. Boring!

In our bizarre alternate reality, we witness the terrifying appearance of a single extra game. Boogan Squad need three games to clear Clouded Minds. That's it. No revenge, no surprise, nothing. They all win the same matches the same way. Sack of Bricks even get their upset like they're stuck in a loop. Feh. I know who I'm rooting for in the Grand Finals.

C East

These guys made us wait three rounds for an upset: #2 ReGen Red knocking off #1 The Found Vikings. That set, like every other, was a domination, except for those Vikings losing a game to #8 Wood League in the first round. Those who expect the unexpected did not expect what they should have expected, which was the not at all unexpected C East postseason. This only goes to support my argument for automating playoffs. Robots are less predictable!

In the dark future I present to you, TFV dominate RGR. Otherwise, not much changes. Some spicy upsets are narrowly avoided by bracket luck. Almost Legends need an extra game to get past Calculated Throw, and ReGen need the same for Almost, but match results are not further altered.

C West

Another of the few upsets here, as #6 Periloot shocked Dive Hard in round one. Can't Counterpick Stupid needed three games for both of their match wins. Everyone else dominated, including Rush B over CCS in the Finals.

Rush B won every match in the regular season, so you know how this ends. They don't even need an extra game, sweeping all before them en route to The Found Vikings. The rest of the bracket is interesting, though. Dive Hard hold off Periloot in three, Plug Walk get a true reverse sweep against Ginormous Jaegers, and CCS are 4-0 when they reach the Finals.

B East

Another div with no upsets, this time all the way to the end.

The regular season was slightly less dull. Using those results, we see Minion Miners' 2-1 over Jailbait morph into a 1-2, but round two is still an 0-2 to gillyShark. The only other change is NUES needing a third game to take LuBu's lunch money.

B West

The bwest division of them all saw the only win by a 5th seed, the most likely upset possible, but they couldn't go Full Meta to make the Finals. Though no other lower seeds won a single match, this was the most hotly contested division, with four map wins by losing teams. Only Da East joined them with more than two, taking three matches the distance. #2 Wholesome Halfwits had the most rubber of any team in NGS, winning two matches 2-1 before losing the Finals the same way. ReGen Blue were the only other team to win while losing, spooking the #1 Virtual Murky Slayers in round one.

In the wild west, the Halfwits don't get their rubber rolling because they never leave the first round, falling in three to #7 Soak Every Lane. That leads to a 2-0 for 10 Armor, who need an extra game in round one but still win. Unfortunately, the spice stops flowing there. Logical Decision save VMS from their only regular season rivals, and the Slayers get a clean sweep through the west.

A

Aside from Heroic, whose playoffs are shrouded in mystery, this is the only division without a coastal split. As such, their final match is another rerun. The biggest surprise so far is simply the fact that #5 Ferret's Ferrets forfeited in round one. Although they were underdogs, they could've made some noise. Instead, every match went as expected, with only Lionspeed and PFM stealing games before dying. That is, until the semi-finals, where the #3 Dread Pirates scored a minor upset over #2 n0b0. That makes them the lowest seed in the Grand Finals, which makes you wonder what would've happened if A needed a third round before the end.

If we use our imaginations, we can envision a world where destiny is intractable. Ferret's Ferrets would dominate Queen's Consorts, but they can't get out of the first round. The forfeit repealed, they still lose to Gimme the D-Shield in three. They, in turn, are still dominated by QC, who need a third game in round one. Dread Pirates/Lionspeed follows the script, but the Pirates go from 2-0 to 1-2 in round two, allowing n0b0 to reach the final round after dominating PFM.


What have we learned? Nothing is ever as good as you want it to be and consistency isn't limited to oatmeal. If you used the regular season to predict the postseason, you got 83.3% of matches right (40-8). Simply picking the higher seed got you the superior mark of 85.4% (41-7). With few exceptions, history repeats itself. Growth is slow and teams tend to win for good reason. Once proven, the truth stands up.